Oxford United 4-0 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
11%
3.98
X/2
8%
9.52
X/X
13%
5.34
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
12%
7.25
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.64/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.48
+25% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 69%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.6 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 1.10
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
362 Passes 230
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
21 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
14.01.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
01.11.2022 Oxford United Oxford United 1-1 HT 0-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
15.04.2022 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 2-3 HT 1-3 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
23.11.2021 Oxford United Oxford United 3-1 HT 2-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
30.01.2021 Oxford United Oxford United 1-0 HT 1-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
4-0
AWAY Fleetwood Town
2.37 xG 0.57
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 11
12 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
485 Passes 256
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oxford United ran out comfortable winners over Fleetwood Town 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Oxford United as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Oxford United had 62% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 38%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 2.37 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oxford United had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Oxford United and 0.83 for Fleetwood Town.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Fleetwood Town?

Oxford United 4-0 Fleetwood Town in the England - 1st Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 49%, draw 25%, Fleetwood Town 26%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oxford United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Oxford United) ✓ Over 2.5
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