Harrogate Town 5-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.67
Over 2.5
50%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.35
6+ Goals
10%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.15
1/2
10%
28.5
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
17%
6.54
X/2
12%
4.47
X/X
8%
4.18
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.03
2/X
8%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
29%
+7.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
1.29/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.58
-9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
253 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 70%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.3
17.9 Crosses 26.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Gillingham
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.98 xG 1.15
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
240 Passes 260
65% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.09.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
04.03.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
16.08.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
5-1
AWAY Gillingham
2.24 xG 0.92
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
373 Passes 331
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town cruised past Gillingham 5-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Harrogate Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 52% of the ball to Gillingham's 48%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.24 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Harrogate Town and 0.33 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Gillingham?

Harrogate Town 5-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 37%, draw 25%, Gillingham 39%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gillingham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ BTTS Yes
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