Newport County 0-4 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Apr 2024

Newport County
0-4 HT 0-2
Crawley Town
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.2
6+ Goals
13%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.63
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
15%
5.67
X/2
12%
5.64
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
5%
27.0
2/2
14%
3.61
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.34/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.66
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
251 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
22.1 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Newport County vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.03 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
260 Passes 256
67% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.09.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 4-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
02.01.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
15.10.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
15.04.2022 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 0-2 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
23.11.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
20.04.2021 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2

Newport County 0-4 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
0-4
AWAY Crawley Town
0.57 xG 0.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
230 Passes 296
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town ran out comfortable winners over Newport County 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Crawley Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Newport County had 47% of the ball to Crawley Town's 53%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.57 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crawley Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newport County and 1.83 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Crawley Town?

Newport County 0-4 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newport County 39%, draw 26%, Crawley Town 35%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Newport County), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newport County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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