Notts County 3-3 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Apr 2024

Notts County
3-3 HT 1-1
Milton Keynes Dons
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.43
Over 2.5
45%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.43
No
52%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
5.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
23%
2.7
6+ Goals
9%
6.81
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.25 — our 30% vs market 14.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.98
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
11%
6.65
X/2
16%
5.46
X/X
12%
5.58
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
15%
3.02
2/X
8%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
38%
+17.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
62%
-17.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
66%
-17.4pp
52%
BTTS No
34%
+17.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +0%
1.15/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.15
-34% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
238 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
22.5 Crosses 18.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.57 xG 1.07
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
709 Passes 285
94% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.09.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
19.04.2019 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
23.10.2018 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
21.03.2015 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN1
26.12.2014 Notts County Notts County 0-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
11.03.2014 Notts County Notts County 1-3 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1

Notts County 3-3 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
3-3
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.59 xG 1.52
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
448 Passes 334
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County and Milton Keynes Dons couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Notts County had 55% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 45%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.59 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Notts County and 2.17 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Notts County 3-3 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Notts County 35%, draw 26%, Milton Keynes Dons 38%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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