Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 ES Tunis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 1 Apr 2025

📅01/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.13
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
5.35
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.52
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.8
X/1
16%
4.06
X/2
13%
8.89
X/X
15%
3.81
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
12%
8.22
2/X
8%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-8.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.6pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -43%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
Crosses 9.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
0W-1D-3L
AWAY ES Tunis
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 0.81
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
338 Passes 233
75% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.04.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis AŞL
20.04.2024 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-0 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns AŞL
22.06.2017 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
02.06.2017 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-2 HT 1-1 ES Tunis ES Tunis CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-0
AWAY ES Tunis
0.58 xG 0.17
80% Ball Possession 20%
9 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
577 Passes 92
90% Pass Accuracy 59%
7 Box Touches 8
9 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns nicked a narrow win over ES Tunis 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 80% of the ball to ES Tunis's 20%, shots finished 9-4, expected goals 0.58 to 0.17.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, ES Tunis led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 1.00 for ES Tunis.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 ES Tunis in the CAF Champions League on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 43%, draw 29%, ES Tunis 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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