Salisbury 2-1 Gosport Borough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salisbury EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Gosport Borough EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +30%
1.45/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.48
-12% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salisbury
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Gosport Borough
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
17.02.2024 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 1-1 Salisbury Salisbury İNGNLP
14.10.2023 Salisbury Salisbury 2-0 HT 0-0 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
07.10.2023 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 2-2 Salisbury Salisbury FAK
11.03.2023 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 0-0 HT 0-0 Salisbury Salisbury İNGNLP
31.01.2023 Salisbury Salisbury 1-3 HT 0-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
18.04.2022 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 1-0 HT 1-0 Salisbury Salisbury İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Salisbury vs Gosport Borough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salisbury edged past Gosport Borough 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Salisbury found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gosport Borough led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Salisbury and 1.17 for Gosport Borough.

What was the final score of Salisbury vs Gosport Borough?

Salisbury 2-1 Gosport Borough in the England - Non League Premier on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salisbury vs Gosport Borough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salisbury win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Salisbury 39%, draw 28%, Gosport Borough 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salisbury), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Salisbury) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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