CSA Alagoano 3-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
24%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
24%
+7.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.5pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSA Alagoano EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 51%
-44% / -44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
0.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.12
-100% / -60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSA Alagoano
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Gremio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.71 xG 1.49
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
302 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2022 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 2-0 CSA Alagoano CSA Alagoano BR2
24.06.2022 CSA Alagoano CSA Alagoano 1-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
08.11.2019 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 1-0 CSA Alagoano CSA Alagoano BR1
30.07.2019 CSA Alagoano CSA Alagoano 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSA Alagoano
3-2
AWAY Gremio
0.76 xG 0.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
241 Passes 347
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CSA Alagoano vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSA Alagoano nicked a narrow win over Gremio 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gremio at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CSA Alagoano had 49% of the ball to Gremio's 51%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.76 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CSA Alagoano and 1.25 for Gremio.

What was the final score of CSA Alagoano vs Gremio?

CSA Alagoano 3-2 Gremio in the Brazil - Cup on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSA Alagoano vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split CSA Alagoano 31%, draw 26%, Gremio 43%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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