Ceara 0-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 1 May 2025

Ceara
0-1 HT 0-1
Palmeiras
📅01/05/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Brazil - Cup – 2025

Ceara vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.17
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
8%
7.26
X/2
13%
4.47
X/X
9%
3.88
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
23%
2.95
2/X
9%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+6.5pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.3pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 49%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.45/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.65
-65% / -59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +76%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
20.0 Crosses 13.6
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Ceara vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.54 xG 1.77
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
332 Passes 313
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.07.2022 Ceara Ceara 1-2 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
10.04.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-3 HT 1-2 Ceara Ceara BR1
10.12.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
21.10.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
24.01.2021 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
19.11.2020 Ceara Ceara 2-2 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK

Ceara 0-1 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
0-1
AWAY Palmeiras
0.48 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
368 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras edged past Ceara 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Ceara had 54% of the ball to Palmeiras's 46%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.48 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ceara and 1.67 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Palmeiras?

Ceara 0-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Cup on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ceara 32%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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