Envigado 1-2 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
34%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.62
Over 2.5
36%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
26%
+10.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
34%
Away Win
46%
-12.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
58%
+6.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
42%
-6.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.2pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.87/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.62
-6% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +56%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
246 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
12.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
12.7 Crosses 17.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Once Caldas
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.65 xG 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
264 Passes 290
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
9 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2024 Envigado Envigado 0-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
10.03.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
16.09.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
01.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
21.09.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
27.03.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
1-2
AWAY Once Caldas
0.90 xG 0.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
225 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Envigado 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Once Caldas found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Envigado had 46% of the ball to Once Caldas's 54%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.90 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Envigado and 0.83 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Once Caldas?

Envigado 1-2 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Envigado win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Envigado 36%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Envigado) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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