Maritimo 3-2 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 1 May 2026

📅01/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
22%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
3.84
6+ Goals
8%
17.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 32% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.8pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
26%
-4.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +21%
1.31/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.50
-13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.6 Crosses 18.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leixoes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.82 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
249 Passes 272
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
21.12.2025 Leixoes Leixoes 1-4 HT 1-3 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
05.04.2025 Maritimo Maritimo 1-1 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
10.11.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 1-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
30.03.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
12.11.2023 Leixoes Leixoes 0-1 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
03.08.2019 Leixoes Leixoes 1-2 HT 1-2 Maritimo Maritimo PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
3-2
AWAY Leixoes
1.32 xG 1.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
4 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
170 Passes 281
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
5 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Leixoes 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maritimo had 41% of the ball to Leixoes's 59%, shots finished 4-9, expected goals 1.32 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Maritimo and 0.83 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Leixoes?

Maritimo 3-2 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 46%, draw 32%, Leixoes 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
1 May 2026
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