Machida Zelvia 1-3 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 1 Jun 2024

Machida Zelvia
1-3 HT 1-2
Albirex Niigata
📅01/06/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.78
6+ Goals
11%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.1
X/1
19%
3.87
X/2
10%
9.82
X/X
11%
4.78
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
10%
7.99
2/X
6%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Machida Zelvia v Albirex Niigata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 22%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.69/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.47
+44% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
20.6 Crosses 14.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.08.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JPK
23.10.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
15.05.2022 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
05.12.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
16.05.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
04.10.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 4-0 HT 1-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2

Machida Zelvia 1-3 Albirex Niigata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-3
AWAY Albirex Niigata
2.24 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
307 Passes 316
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
40 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata saw off Machida Zelvia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 51% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 49%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.24 to 1.11 — on chances, Machida Zelvia could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.50 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata?

Machida Zelvia 1-3 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 01/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 48%, draw 26%, Albirex Niigata 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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