Cerro Largo 1-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 1 Jun 2025

📅01/06/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
49%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
49%
Away Win
49%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 52%
+16% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +21%
1.12/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.75
+11% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.08.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
19.02.2024 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-2 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.11.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
10.04.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
23.10.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Largo
1-1
AWAY CA Penarol
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo and CA Penarol couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was CA Penarol at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Cerro Largo had 36% of the ball to CA Penarol's 64%, shots finished 6-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerro Largo and 0.83 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs CA Penarol?

Cerro Largo 1-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 01/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 25%, draw 26%, CA Penarol 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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