Botev Plovdiv 0-4 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 1 Aug 2024

📅01/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
37%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.71
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
23%
+11.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
37%
Away Win
52%
-14.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 56%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.99/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+66% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
25.07.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-1 HT 2-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
0-4
AWAY Panathinaikos
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos swept aside Botev Plovdiv 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Panathinaikos found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 53% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 47%, shots finished 9-14.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Panathinaikos?

Botev Plovdiv 0-4 Panathinaikos in the UEFA Europa League on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 34%, draw 29%, Panathinaikos 37%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Panathinaikos), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✓ BTTS No
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