New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New York City FC v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Toronto FC
ABD
5-0
HT 3-0
Toronto FC
CONLK
New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics
New York City FC and Toronto FC shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
Our pre-match lean was New York City FC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.21 to 1.16.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for New York City FC and 0.67 for Toronto FC.
What was the final score of New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 45%, draw 28%, Toronto FC 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (New York City FC), BTTS No went the other way.