Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
23%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
36%
-5.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.8pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.09/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.31
-23% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
07.04.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 3-1 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
21.10.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
22.07.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
13.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
02.04.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
1-0
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev edged past Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Tallinna Kalev found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 41% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 59%, shots finished 6-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tallinna Kalev had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 0.33 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 30%, draw 30%, Parnu JK Vaprus 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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