Liepaja 3-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
21%
Away Win
21%
-0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 24%
-17% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.40/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.74
-25% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
25.4 Crosses 19.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 0.95
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
329 Passes 251
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.06.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
02.05.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.03.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-2 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
28.10.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
05.08.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 1-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
01.06.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
3-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.88 xG 0.32
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
449 Passes 276
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja beat FK Tukums 2000 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liepaja had 60% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 40%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.88 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Liepaja and 1.00 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs FK Tukums 2000?

Liepaja 3-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 51%, draw 29%, FK Tukums 2000 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
1 Sep 2024
14:00 FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils Analysis →