Rostov 4-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

Rostov
4-1 HT 2-0
Fakel
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.76
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.35
X/1
11%
3.41
X/2
5%
14.3
X/X
15%
5.64
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
9%
12.4
2/X
5%
20.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.3pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.7pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 16%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.58/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.77
-20% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
353 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
23.6 Crosses 13.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 1.08
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
284 Passes 154
70% Pass Accuracy 58%
31 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
23.07.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
06.05.2023 Rostov Rostov 0-2 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
22.10.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
4-1
AWAY Fakel
2.56 xG 1.28
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
335 Passes 109
80% Pass Accuracy 56%
40 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rostov vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov swept aside Fakel 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rostov as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rostov had 68% of the ball to Fakel's 32%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.56 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Rostov had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rostov and 1.00 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Rostov vs Fakel?

Rostov 4-1 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Rostov 54%, draw 26%, Fakel 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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