FK Orenburg 2-2 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
38%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.51
Over 2.5
48%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.46
No
51%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.68
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
22%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
6.17
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.68 — our 27% vs market 13.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.78
1/2
9%
20.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
14%
7.72
X/2
14%
4.83
X/X
11%
6.16
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
15%
2.51
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.2pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
38%
Away Win
48%
-10.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
36%
+16.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
64%
-16.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
64%
-15.1pp
51%
BTTS No
36%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 52%
+16% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.86/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.04
+41% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
23.6 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.76 xG 2.34
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
344 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 31
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
17.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUSK
08.02.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg HAZ
12.11.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.06.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
27.11.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-2
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.65 xG 3.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
330 Passes 279
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 34
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg and Dinamo Moscow couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 53% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 47%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.65 to 3.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.17 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

FK Orenburg 2-2 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 35%, draw 27%, Dinamo Moscow 38%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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