FK Orenburg 1-2 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.61
2-3 Goals
44%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.58
1/2
5%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
5.91
X/2
15%
5.73
X/X
11%
5.36
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
14%
3.43
2/X
8%
12.45
Value flag · X/1 at 5.91 — our 18% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.9pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 40%
+11% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.79/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.41
+26% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
282 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
24.4 Crosses 17.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.69 xG 2.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 8
330 Passes 308
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUSK
08.02.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg HAZ
12.11.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.06.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
27.11.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
15.10.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-2 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-2
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.56 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
347 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
45 Box Touches 15
43 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow nicked a narrow win over FK Orenburg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Dinamo Moscow made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 56% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 44%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.56 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.33 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

FK Orenburg 1-2 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 40%, draw 26%, Dinamo Moscow 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FK Orenburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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