West Bromwich 0-1 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
12%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.21
1/2
10%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.96
X/2
7%
6.15
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
16%
4.33
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Bromwich EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.57/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.14
+8% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
450 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
23.4 Crosses 17.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Bromwich
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.83 xG 1.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
347 Passes 378
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
26.08.2023 West Bromwich West Bromwich 4-2 HT 2-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
25.02.2023 West Bromwich West Bromwich 2-0 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
30.07.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
22.02.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-1 HT 0-1 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
06.11.2021 West Bromwich West Bromwich 1-1 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Bromwich
0-1
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.37 xG 1.32
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
472 Passes 448
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH West Bromwich vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough nicked a narrow win over West Bromwich 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was West Bromwich at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, West Bromwich had 51% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 49%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.37 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for West Bromwich and 1.17 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of West Bromwich vs Middlesbrough?

West Bromwich 0-1 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Bromwich vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Bromwich win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split West Bromwich 42%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (West Bromwich) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (West Bromwich) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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