Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
6.72
2-3 Goals
38%
2.15
4-5 Goals
22%
2.49
6+ Goals
13%
5.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
28%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
68%
-9.0pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+12.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-12.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 17%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.00/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.64
-13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
5W-0D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.52 xG 1.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
249 Passes 312
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
13.08.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
12.05.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
17.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-4 HT 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
28.08.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 5-1 HT 3-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow nicked a narrow win over FK Orenburg 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 55% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 45%, shots finished 10-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.33 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs FK Orenburg?

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Cup on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 59%, draw 20%, FK Orenburg 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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