FK Orenburg 2-4 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.74
2-3 Goals
38%
2.03
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.49
1/2
8%
20.95
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
15%
7.42
X/2
14%
5.03
X/X
7%
6.02
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
19%
2.63
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.65
Value flag · 2/X at 12.65 — our 12% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.5pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 50%
+16% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.84/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.23
+44% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
23.7 Crosses 16.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.01 xG 2.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
301 Passes 265
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 26
26 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
12.05.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
17.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-4 HT 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
28.08.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 5-1 HT 3-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.06.2020 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-4
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
2.77 xG 3.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
241 Passes 353
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
35 Box Touches 45
31 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow beat FK Orenburg 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 44% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 56%, shots finished 16-25, expected goals 2.77 to 3.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

FK Orenburg 2-4 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 33%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Moscow 41%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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