Gagra 2-1 Samtredia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 1 Nov 2024

📅01/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
24%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+2.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Samtredia EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.61/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/2.21
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -39%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Samtredia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2024 Samtredia Samtredia 2-0 HT 0-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
10.05.2024 Gagra Gagra 2-1 HT 1-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
16.03.2024 Samtredia Samtredia 1-3 HT 1-2 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 4-3 HT 2-3 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
23.09.2023 Samtredia Samtredia 3-1 HT 3-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 0-1 HT 0-0 Samtredia Samtredia GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
2-1
AWAY Samtredia
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Samtredia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gagra nicked a narrow win over Samtredia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gagra as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gagra had 44% of the ball to Samtredia's 56%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gagra and 1.83 for Samtredia.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Samtredia?

Gagra 2-1 Samtredia in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Samtredia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gagra win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gagra 47%, draw 29%, Samtredia 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gagra), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gagra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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