De Graafschap 4-1 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Nov 2024

📅01/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.89
Over 2.5
61%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.68
2-3 Goals
35%
2.15
4-5 Goals
29%
2.5
6+ Goals
15%
5.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.15
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
12%
4.55
X/2
7%
9.35
X/X
7%
6.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
18.95
2/2
12%
5.69
2/X
7%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.95 — our 16% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
31%
+8.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
69%
-8.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.2pp
42%
BTTS No
33%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +10%
1.81/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.82
+4% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
24.4 Crosses 17.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Dordrecht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.72 xG 0.76
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
399 Passes 285
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2024 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-1 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
04.12.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
10.03.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-4 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
26.08.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
11.02.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
19.11.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-4 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
4-1
AWAY Dordrecht
2.29 xG 1.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 Passes 271
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap ran out comfortable winners over Dordrecht 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 56% of the ball to Dordrecht's 44%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.29 to 1.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?

De Graafschap 4-1 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 48%, draw 22%, Dordrecht 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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