Dordrecht 2-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.74
Over 2.5
55%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.38
No
43%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.42
2-3 Goals
41%
2.12
4-5 Goals
26%
2.52
6+ Goals
10%
5.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.01
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
10%
12.05
X/1 EV+ ✓
18%
5.7
X/2
13%
6.67
X/X
12%
6.07
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
16%
3.74
2/X
5%
12.15
Value flag · X/1 at 5.7 — our 18% vs market 13.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
33%
+12.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
67%
-12.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-11.7pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.02/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.23
-21% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.8 Crosses 19.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dordrecht
1W-3D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.09 xG 2.48
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
268 Passes 408
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.12.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
10.03.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-4 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
26.08.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
11.02.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
19.11.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-4 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
02.04.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-3 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dordrecht
2-1
AWAY De Graafschap
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Dordrecht vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dordrecht squeezed past De Graafschap 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Dordrecht made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Dordrecht had 47% of the ball to De Graafschap's 53%, shots finished 11-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dordrecht and 2.00 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?

Dordrecht 2-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dordrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dordrecht 38%, draw 27%, De Graafschap 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dordrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dordrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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