Telstar 3-1 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
28%
2.72
6+ Goals
14%
6.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.61
1/2
9%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
10%
4.9
X/2
7%
7.55
X/X
10%
5.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.35
2/2
18%
4.76
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.9pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.54/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.41
-8% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
433 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
23.2 Crosses 14.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
2W-3D-1L
AWAY PSV II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
322 Passes 397
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.08.2023 PSV II PSV II 1-0 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
17.02.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
07.10.2022 PSV II PSV II 0-2 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
17.12.2021 Telstar Telstar 0-0 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
18.10.2021 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 0-2 Telstar Telstar HOL2
30.04.2021 Telstar Telstar 2-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
3-1
AWAY PSV II
1.60 xG 1.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
338 Passes 417
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Telstar vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar got the better of PSV II 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Telstar as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Telstar had 47% of the ball to PSV II's 53%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.60 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Telstar had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Telstar and 1.00 for PSV II.

What was the final score of Telstar vs PSV II?

Telstar 3-1 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Telstar 43%, draw 24%, PSV II 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Telstar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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