Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 Sao Joao Ver — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 1 Nov 2024

📅01/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
31%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+11.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.19/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.31
+57% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
406 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sao Joao Ver
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.08.2024 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver 1-0 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
2-1
AWAY Sao Joao Ver
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sao Joao Ver
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa nicked a narrow win over Sao Joao Ver 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 53% of the ball to Sao Joao Ver's 47%, shots finished 11-8.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sao Joao Ver?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 Sao Joao Ver in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sao Joao Ver?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 46%, draw 23%, Sao Joao Ver 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Over 2.5
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