Motherwell 1-4 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - League Cup, 1 Nov 2025

📅01/11/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
25%
3.65
6+ Goals
9%
15.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.48
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
19%
5.37
X/2
9%
6.19
X/X
12%
4.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
2/2
15%
4.35
2/X
9%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 36%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.45/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.24/1.06
+6% / +100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -82% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
268 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
4.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
2W-4D-0L
AWAY St. Mirren
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 1.32
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
291 Passes 253
69% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.08.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
15.03.2025 Motherwell Motherwell 2-2 HT 1-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
07.12.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
28.09.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 2-1 HT 2-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
30.03.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
16.12.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren swept aside Motherwell 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Motherwell at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motherwell had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Motherwell and 0.67 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs St. Mirren?

Motherwell 1-4 St. Mirren in the Scotland - League Cup on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 42%, draw 27%, St. Mirren 31%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motherwell) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motherwell) ✓ BTTS Yes
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