Motherwell 2-1 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 28 Sep 2024

Motherwell
2-1 HT 2-1
St. Mirren
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Motherwell vs St. Mirren Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.09
6+ Goals
12%
19.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.95
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
17%
4.48
X/2
9%
6.73
X/X
14%
4.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
27.5
2/2
11%
5.2
2/X
7%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.2pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motherwell v St. Mirren — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.52/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.20
+10% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
233 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 69%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
23.2 Crosses 24.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Motherwell vs St. Mirren Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
1W-2D-3L
AWAY St. Mirren
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
273 Passes 244
65% Pass Accuracy 65%
17 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
16.12.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
16.09.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 0-1 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
19.08.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-0 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKLK
15.02.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-1 HT 2-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
28.01.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-0 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP

Motherwell 2-1 St. Mirren — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
2-1
AWAY St. Mirren
2.07 xG 2.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 6
182 Passes 378
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell nicked a narrow win over St. Mirren 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Motherwell as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Motherwell had 37% of the ball to St. Mirren's 63%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 2.07 to 2.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Mirren led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Motherwell and 0.83 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs St. Mirren?

Motherwell 2-1 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 45%, draw 28%, St. Mirren 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motherwell), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motherwell) ✓ BTTS Yes
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