Dundee FC 1-2 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.38
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
9%
6.11
X/2
12%
4.76
X/X
10%
4.87
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
22%
3.11
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.28/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.89
+27% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +35%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
192 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.9 Crosses 22.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Aberdeen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.11
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
195 Passes 300
63% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-0 HT 0-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
13.03.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
30.01.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-1 HT 1-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
30.04.2022 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
02.04.2022 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
26.12.2021 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 1-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee FC
1-2
AWAY Aberdeen
1.50 xG 0.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
327 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 19
40 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dundee FC vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen nicked a narrow win over Dundee FC 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Aberdeen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Dundee FC had 53% of the ball to Aberdeen's 47%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.50 to 0.62 — on chances, Dundee FC could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dundee FC and 1.00 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Dundee FC vs Aberdeen?

Dundee FC 1-2 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee FC vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Dundee FC 37%, draw 24%, Aberdeen 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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