Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 1 Nov 2025

Real Madrid
4-0 HT 3-0
Valencia
📅01/11/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Madrid vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
79%
1.16
Draw
10%
7.13
Away
11%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.14
Over 2.5
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
17%
7.25
2-3 Goals
36%
2.23
4-5 Goals
32%
2.37
6+ Goals
15%
4.31
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.25 — our 17% vs market 9.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1.25
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
3%
28.5
X/1
20%
3.98
X/2
3%
33.0
X/X
4%
12.0
2/1
9%
22.25
2/2
5%
28.5
2/X
3%
34.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Real Madrid win — 79% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
82%
-2.9pp
10%
Draw
11%
-1.2pp
11%
Away Win
7%
+4.2pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.5pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.7pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
2.36/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.38
+6% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -27%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
550 · 89% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
41.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
18.5 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Real Madrid vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Valencia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.30 xG 1.02
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
593 Passes 262
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.04.2025 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
03.01.2025 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.03.2024 Valencia Valencia 2-2 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
11.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-1 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
21.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1

Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-0
AWAY Valencia
2.71 xG 0.50
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 4
11 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
647 Passes 317
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
60 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid ran out comfortable winners over Valencia 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (66%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 65% of the ball to Valencia's 35%, shots finished 21-4, expected goals 2.71 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Real Madrid and 1.17 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Valencia?

Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 79%, draw 10%, Valencia 11%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
1 Nov 2025
16:00 Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano Analysis →
18:15 Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Analysis →
20:30 Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Analysis →