Villarreal 4-0 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 1 Nov 2025

📅01/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.14
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.19
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
21%
4.5
X/2
6%
9.6
X/X
8%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.35
2/2
11%
7.08
2/X
8%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
54%
+2.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.3pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
1.88/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.38
+24% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
19.9 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.97 xG 1.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 Passes 302
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
18.12.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
28.04.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 3-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
28.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
30.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
4-0
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
3.15 xG 0.97
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
371 Passes 396
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
36 Box Touches 21
6 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal cruised past Rayo Vallecano 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, Villarreal had 47% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 53%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 3.15 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Villarreal and 0.83 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?

Villarreal 4-0 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 57%, draw 22%, Rayo Vallecano 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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