Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
30%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.93
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.15
X/1
15%
6.0
X/2
13%
5.81
X/X
14%
4.35
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
10%
3.73
2/X
7%
12.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.26/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.38
-9% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
24.3 Crosses 14.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Villarreal
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.37 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
305 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.12.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
28.04.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 3-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
28.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
30.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.05.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-5 HT 1-4 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0-1
AWAY Villarreal
0.63 xG 0.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
339 Passes 309
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal nicked a narrow win over Rayo Vallecano 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rayo Vallecano at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 51% of the ball to Villarreal's 49%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.63 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.83 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 41%, draw 29%, Villarreal 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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