Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Apr 2025

Real Madrid
1-2 HT 0-1
Valencia
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.61
2-3 Goals
34%
2.04
4-5 Goals
29%
2.58
6+ Goals
16%
5.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.5
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
20.1
X/1
22%
3.99
X/2
5%
18.5
X/X
8%
8.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.1
2/2
5%
14.85
2/X
7%
23.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.3pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.0pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Valencia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
2.27/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.94
+24% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
535 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 82%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
17.6 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Real Madrid vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Valencia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.01 xG 1.11
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
627 Passes 306
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.01.2025 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.03.2024 Valencia Valencia 2-2 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
11.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-1 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
21.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.02.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
11.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İSSK

Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
1-2
AWAY Valencia
3.47 xG 0.76
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
565 Passes 261
91% Pass Accuracy 77%
45 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia nicked a narrow win over Real Madrid 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Real Madrid at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 65% of the ball to Valencia's 35%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 3.47 to 0.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Real Madrid.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Real Madrid and 1.00 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Valencia?

Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 62%, draw 22%, Valencia 16%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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