Alianza Lima 2-2 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 1 Nov 2025

📅01/11/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 24%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.60/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.48
+2% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
21.5 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melgar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.75 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
259 Passes 278
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.06.2025 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
29.09.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 0-1 Melgar Melgar PER
29.04.2024 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
29.09.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
20.05.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
13.11.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
2-2
AWAY Melgar
2.09 xG 0.54
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
342 Passes 207
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
35 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima and Melgar shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Lima at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 59% of the ball to Melgar's 41%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.09 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.67 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Melgar?

Alianza Lima 2-2 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 50%, draw 28%, Melgar 21%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
PER More Peru - Premier League
1 Nov 2025
21:00 Cultural San vs Ayacucho FC Analysis →
23:15 Comerciantes Unidos vs Sporting Cristal Analysis →