Alianza Lima 1-1 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.51
Over 2.5
30%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.4
No
63%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
23%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-11.3pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.4pp
70%
Under 2.5
62%
+7.9pp
30%
Over 2.5
38%
-7.9pp
37%
BTTS Yes
38%
-0.2pp
63%
BTTS No
62%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 19%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +11%
1.74/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.66
+5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +25%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
22.0 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Melgar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.74 xG 1.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
236 Passes 317
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.04.2024 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
29.09.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
20.05.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
13.11.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
09.11.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
22.09.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 2-0 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-1
AWAY Melgar
0.29 xG 0.46
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
276 Passes 184
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
13 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima and Melgar shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Lima at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (70%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 57% of the ball to Melgar's 43%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.29 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.67 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Melgar?

Alianza Lima 1-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 46%, draw 32%, Melgar 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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