Sporting Cristal 4-1 Cesar Vallejo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
27%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.9pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.87/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.92
+23% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
347 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 77%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.4
23.0 Crosses 12.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 0.99
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
317 Passes 195
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
30.04.2024 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
22.09.2023 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
28.04.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-1 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
28.08.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
09.04.2022 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
14.08.2021 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-1 HT 0-1 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
4-1
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
2.87 xG 0.43
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
207 Passes 319
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Cristal vs Cesar Vallejo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal swept aside Cesar Vallejo 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Cristal as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 43% of the ball to Cesar Vallejo's 57%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 2.87 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesar Vallejo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.00 for Cesar Vallejo.

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Cesar Vallejo?

Sporting Cristal 4-1 Cesar Vallejo in the Peru - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Cesar Vallejo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 59%, draw 25%, Cesar Vallejo 16%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Cristal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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