Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Alianza Lima — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Alianza Lima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
2-1
HT 1-0
Alianza Lima
PER
2-0
HT 1-0
Melgar
PER
1-0
HT 0-0
Alianza Lima
PER
Melgar 0-1 Alianza Lima — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Lima squeezed past Melgar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Melgar at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.
On the day, Melgar had 63% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 37%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.92 to 1.23.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Melgar and 0.67 for Alianza Lima.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Melgar 0-1 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 29/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Melgar 41%, draw 30%, Alianza Lima 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Melgar) went the other way.