Alianza Atletico 2-1 Atletico Grau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 29 Jun 2025

📅29/06/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.5pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.48/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.47
+30% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
16.1 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Atletico
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Atletico Grau
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 1.16
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
159 Passes 290
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.07.2024 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
28.01.2024 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
08.10.2023 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
27.05.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 3-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
09.10.2022 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 4-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
22.05.2022 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-2 HT 1-2 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Atletico
2-1
AWAY Atletico Grau
1.71 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
165 Passes 168
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Atletico nicked a narrow win over Atletico Grau 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alianza Atletico as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Atletico had 49% of the ball to Atletico Grau's 51%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.71 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Atletico had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.00 for Atletico Grau.

What was the final score of Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?

Alianza Atletico 2-1 Atletico Grau in the Peru - Premier League on 29/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Atletico win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Alianza Atletico 41%, draw 32%, Atletico Grau 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Atletico) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Atletico) ✗ Under 2.5
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