Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chelsea v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Aston Villa
İNP
0-2
HT 0-1
Aston Villa
İNP
1-0
HT 1-0
Chelsea
HAZ
Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Chelsea swept aside Aston Villa 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Chelsea had 64% of the ball to Aston Villa's 36%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.69 to 1.23.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chelsea and 1.17 for Aston Villa.
What was the final score of Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 53%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.