Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.81
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
28%
2.85
6+ Goals
15%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.35
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.2
X/1
13%
4.74
X/2
8%
10.8
X/X
11%
6.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.4
2/2
11%
7.38
2/X
7%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
2.11/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.88
-1% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
18.7 Crosses 13.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aston Villa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 1.07
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
483 Passes 319
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
07.02.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 0-2 Chelsea Chelsea FAK
26.01.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa FAK
24.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
01.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
11.12.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
3-0
AWAY Aston Villa
1.69 xG 1.23
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
561 Passes 296
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea swept aside Aston Villa 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 64% of the ball to Aston Villa's 36%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.69 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chelsea and 1.17 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Aston Villa?

Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 53%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
1 Dec 2024
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