Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 1 Dec 2024

Rayo Vallecano
1-2 HT 1-0
Athletic Bilbao
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.51
Over
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.29
2-3
41%
1.81
4-5
20%
5.5
6+
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.39
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X ✗
9%
16.45
X/1
17%
6.65
X/2
12%
5.31
X/X
13%
4.0
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.91
2/X
8%
16.15
Value flag · 1/X at 16.45 — our 9% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.3pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +9%
1.27/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.26
-5% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
24.6 Crosses 19.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.17 xG 0.99
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
388 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
02.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
05.03.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
17.09.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 3-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
23.01.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
21.09.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-2 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-2
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.25 xG 0.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
302 Passes 339
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao edged past Rayo Vallecano 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Athletic Bilbao found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 47% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 53%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.25 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.67 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 35%, draw 30%, Athletic Bilbao 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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