Gagra 1-2 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
47%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-7.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 59%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
0.83/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.54/1.28
-28% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Saburtalo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2024 Saburtalo 1-1 HT 0-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.05.2024 Gagra Gagra 4-0 HT 4-0 Saburtalo GUR
11.04.2024 Saburtalo 3-1 HT 2-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
11.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 2-1 HT 0-1 Saburtalo GUR
02.09.2023 Saburtalo 5-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
20.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 1-2 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
1-2
AWAY Saburtalo
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo squeezed past Gagra 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Saburtalo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Gagra had 45% of the ball to Saburtalo's 55%, shots finished 5-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gagra and 2.00 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Saburtalo?

Gagra 1-2 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gagra 28%, draw 25%, Saburtalo 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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