Saburtalo 1-1 Gagra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-13.1pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+7.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gagra EU Bookmakers 16%
-10% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +16%
1.86/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.81
-2% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
457 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saburtalo
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Gagra
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2024 Gagra Gagra 4-0 HT 4-0 Saburtalo GUR
11.04.2024 Saburtalo 3-1 HT 2-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
11.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 2-1 HT 0-1 Saburtalo GUR
02.09.2023 Saburtalo 5-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
20.05.2023 Gagra Gagra 1-2 HT 0-2 Saburtalo GUR
01.04.2023 Saburtalo 3-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
1-1
AWAY Gagra
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Gagra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo and Gagra couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Saburtalo at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Saburtalo had 68% of the ball to Gagra's 32%, shots finished 24-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Saburtalo and 1.33 for Gagra.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Gagra?

Saburtalo 1-1 Gagra in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Gagra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 54%, draw 25%, Gagra 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saburtalo), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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