Fenerbahçe 1-1 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 1 Dec 2025

📅01/12/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.01
2-3 Goals
33%
1.85
4-5 Goals
29%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.96
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
11%
12.65
X/1
16%
5.22
X/2
9%
7.03
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.55
2/2
10%
4.69
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-5.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.3pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.80/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.63
-23% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.5 Crosses 15.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Galatasaray
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 1.23
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
232 Passes 299
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
02.04.2025 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-2 HT 1-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TÜK
24.02.2025 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
21.09.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-3 HT 0-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
19.05.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
24.12.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
04.06.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-0 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
1-1
AWAY Galatasaray
1.00 xG 0.23
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
340 Passes 265
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fenerbahçe at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 56% of the ball to Galatasaray's 44%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.00 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.33 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?

Fenerbahçe 1-1 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 01/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 46%, draw 30%, Galatasaray 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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