Livingston 1-2 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 2 Jan 2024

Livingston
1-2 HT 0-0
Hearts
📅02/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2023/2024

Livingston vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
15%
4.39
6+ Goals
9%
22.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 35% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.16
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
5%
15.25
X/1
13%
7.48
X/2
11%
4.07
X/X
13%
4.23
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.64
2/X
10%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
42%
Away Win
48%
-6.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Livingston v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Livingston EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 52%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -17%
1.27/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.32
-19% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
237 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
15.7 Crosses 19.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Livingston vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Livingston
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Hearts
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.84 xG 1.65
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
167 Passes 386
62% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Hearts Hearts 1-0 HT 0-0 Livingston Livingston İKP
29.01.2023 Livingston Livingston 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
12.11.2022 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 0-0 Livingston Livingston İKP
03.09.2022 Livingston Livingston 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
19.03.2022 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 Livingston Livingston İKP
12.02.2022 Hearts Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Livingston Livingston İKK

Livingston 1-2 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Livingston
1-2
AWAY Hearts
1.66 xG 1.80
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
250 Passes 207
67% Pass Accuracy 60%
22 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Livingston vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts edged past Livingston 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Livingston had 53% of the ball to Hearts's 47%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.66 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Livingston and 0.67 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Livingston vs Hearts?

Livingston 1-2 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 02/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Livingston vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Livingston 30%, draw 29%, Hearts 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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