Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 2 Jan 2026

📅02/01/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
53%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.49
No
37%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
15%
6.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
4%
X/1
3%
X/2
23%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
25%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.2pp
53%
Away Win
52%
+0.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
63%
BTTS Yes
63%
-0.5pp
37%
BTTS No
37%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 56%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +25%
1.59/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.73/1.14
+0% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / +22%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 84%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.4
14.6 Crosses 18.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.64 xG 1.59
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
225 Passes 362
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-2 HT 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUSK
13.02.2025 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 2-3 HT 0-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
13.09.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
15.03.2024 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
22.09.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-3 HT 3-1 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
28.05.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
3-2
AWAY Al Nassr
3.66 xG 0.91
30% Ball Possession 70%
17 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
125 Passes 388
65% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah squeezed past Al Nassr 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 30% of the ball to Al Nassr's 70%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 3.66 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahli Jeddah's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Ahli Jeddah and 2.00 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr?

Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 02/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 22%, draw 25%, Al Nassr 53%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Nassr) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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