Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Al Ahli Jeddah v Al Nassr — Team-Based Signals
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-3
HT 3-1
Al Ahli Jeddah
SUUD
1-1
HT 0-0
Al Ahli Jeddah
SUUD
Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Nassr — Actual Match Statistics
Al Ahli Jeddah squeezed past Al Nassr 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 30% of the ball to Al Nassr's 70%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 3.66 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahli Jeddah's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Ahli Jeddah and 2.00 for Al Nassr.
What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr?
Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 02/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Nassr?
Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 22%, draw 25%, Al Nassr 53%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Nassr) went the other way.