Manchester City (K) 3-4 Arsenal (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Women's Premier League, 2 Feb 2025

Manchester City (K)
3-4 HT 1-2
Arsenal (K)
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Women's Premier League – 2024/2025

Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.0pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City (K) v Arsenal (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City (K) EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal (K) EU Bookmakers 45%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+41% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City (K)
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Arsenal (K)
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
420 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.09.2024 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 2-2 HT 1-1 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKPL
05.05.2024 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) 1-2 HT 1-0 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) İNKPL
11.02.2024 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKFAK
27.10.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKPL
11.05.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKPL
23.02.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKLK

Manchester City (K) 3-4 Arsenal (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City (K)
3-4
AWAY Arsenal (K)
1.75 xG 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
423 Passes 385
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal (K) nicked a narrow win over Manchester City (K) 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arsenal (K) as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Manchester City (K) had 52% of the ball to Arsenal (K)'s 48%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.75 to 2.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal (K) led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Manchester City (K) and 1.00 for Arsenal (K).

What was the final score of Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Manchester City (K) 3-4 Arsenal (K) in the England - Women's Premier League on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Manchester City (K) 33%, draw 25%, Arsenal (K) 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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