Legia Varşova 1-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Feb 2025

Legia Varşova
1-1 HT 1-1
Korona Kielce
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Legia Varşova vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 23% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
3.81
X/2
6%
13.8
X/X
9%
6.12
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
7%
11.9
2/X
7%
20.4
Value flag · X/1 at 3.81 — our 26% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.1pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.9pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Legia Varşova v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
2.00/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.38
+23% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
23.1 Crosses 19.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Legia Varşova vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
339 Passes 267
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.07.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
25.02.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 3-3 HT 1-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
06.12.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
20.08.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
29.01.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-2 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
16.07.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL

Legia Varşova 1-1 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
2.78 xG 1.64
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
401 Passes 227
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
48 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova and Korona Kielce couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Legia Varşova carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 61% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 39%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 2.78 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.33 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Korona Kielce?

Legia Varşova 1-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 58%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ BTTS No
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