Fenerbahçe 3-2 Çaykur Rizespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 2 Feb 2025

📅02/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.7
6+ Goals
14%
7.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.8
X/1
19%
3.97
X/2
7%
15.85
X/X
11%
7.34
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
18.9
2/2
6%
12.8
2/X
6%
20.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.9 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
69%
-10.8pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Çaykur Rizespor EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
2.34/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.28
+18% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -21%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 72%
34.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
22.6 Crosses 15.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Çaykur Rizespor
4.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
3.09 xG 0.58
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
415 Passes 290
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-5 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
17.02.2024 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 1-3 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
01.10.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 5-0 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
19.01.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 1-1 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TÜK
22.04.2022 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-6 HT 0-3 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
05.12.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-0 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
3-2
AWAY Çaykur Rizespor
4.53 xG 0.28
67% Ball Possession 33%
36 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
467 Passes 209
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
73 Box Touches 8
51 Crosses 3
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Çaykur Rizespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe edged past Çaykur Rizespor 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 67% of the ball to Çaykur Rizespor's 33%, shots finished 36-6, expected goals 4.53 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 4.17 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.33 for Çaykur Rizespor.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Çaykur Rizespor?

Fenerbahçe 3-2 Çaykur Rizespor in the Turkey - Super League on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Çaykur Rizespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 58%, draw 23%, Çaykur Rizespor 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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