Ebbsfleet United 2-1 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.59
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.63
X/2
12%
7.54
X/X
12%
5.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.3
2/2
13%
5.1
2/X
9%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 31%
-13% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.45/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.90
-11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Rochdale
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
05.08.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 0-1 HT 0-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
2-1
AWAY Rochdale
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ebbsfleet United edged past Rochdale 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ebbsfleet United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 60% of the ball to Rochdale's 40%, shots finished 7-6.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs Rochdale?

Ebbsfleet United 2-1 Rochdale in the England - National League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ebbsfleet United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 42%, draw 27%, Rochdale 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ebbsfleet United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ebbsfleet United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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